Cash game. White on roll. White to play 3-2.
Note: All ‘cash game’ problems assume the Jacoby Rule is in effect. That is, you can’t win a gammon unless the cube has been turned.
In this position, White has two choices: he can enter and hit on the 5-point, or he can enter and make an anchor on the 22-point. To hit or not to hit – what’s right?
The 5-point is a strong point. In the abstract, it’s the best point there is, so hitting with the idea of making the 5-point next turn is often a good idea. But making an anchor is a good idea too, even an anchor on the modest 22-point. If we could only do one of these good things, we’d do it. But here we can do either but not both, so we have to pick and choose.
These kinds of choices in the opening are rarely easy. Some writers try to make them seem easy, with comments like “Making the 5-point can’t be wrong” or “When in doubt, hit”. When you see remarks like those, remember that writers have deadlines, and a broad (but wrong) generalization is quicker than a carefully reasoned analysis complete with counter-examples. (And yes, I’ve done this myself. Mea culpa.)
In reality, these decisions can’t be made in the abstract. They hinge on multiple features of the position, all of which must be carefully weighed together to make a good judgement. Let’s start by listing the features that come into play in this position.
Features that favor hitting:
(1) The strength of the point. The more important the point, the more you want to fight for it. In the opening, the two 5-points are the most important points on the board. Strong argument for hitting with 8/5*.
(2) The strength of your opponent’s inner board. The weaker your opponent’s inner board, the more inclined you are to hit. Here Black has no inner board. Good argument for hitting.
(3) Your opponent’s threats. The more your opponent is threatening to do next turn, the more you want to hit and take away half his roll. Here Black has many rolls that make one 5-point or the other. Strong argument for hitting.
(4) Your opponent’s structure. By “structure” here I mean features like blots, stacked points, and stripped points. Weak structures take time to repair, and hitting removes some of that time by taking away half a roll. White’s builders on his 10-point and 8-point coupled with his stack on the 6-point provide a strong argument for hitting.
Features that favor making the anchor:
(1) The strength of your inner board. The stronger your board, the more you want to hit, as your opponent may dance. Here you have no inner board. Good argument for making the anchor.
(2) The likelihood of getting hit back if you hit. After playing Bar/23 8/5*, Black has 25 numbers that hit back.: everything except 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-6, and 2-1. That’s a good argument for not hitting.
The preponderance of positional factors favors the natural play of hitting. The 5-point is very important, Black’s board is weak, and Black’s rolls all play very well if White doesn’t hit. Not surprisingly, rollouts back up the hitting play by a solid margin.
Solution: Bar/23 8/5
