Black – Pips 168 (=)
Black to Play 6-2
This position shows a typically awkward moment in the early game. Black’s game is temporarily a little loose, and now he throws a 2-6 from the bar.
Sometimes a six from the bar will allow us to do something obvious and good, like hitting a blot or building a point. When we can’t do anything good, we’re usually faced with a choice among several unappetizing alternatives. That’s the case here. We have four legal sixes: 8/2, 13/7, 21/15, and 22/16. None look great, but we have to pick one. Let’s set up some guidelines and see if they can lead us to the least unappealing six.
(a) Minimizing shots and blots. If the race is close, simply cutting down on our blots and our opponent’s shots will be a worthy goal. This is especially true if the roll has left us with a bunch of blots and no anchor.
(b) Staying out of the “zone”. The “zone” is the six-point range from your opponent’s 4-point to his 9-point. Those are the points your opponent is most eager to make, as well as the best place for him to establish builders. If you’re helpless and your opponent is looking to land a big punch, staying out of the zone minimizes what he can do.
(c) Staying connected. All else being equal, you’d rather your checkers were connected (within six pips of each other) than not. That way, you’re threatening to link next turn, as well as getting some extra return shots if your outside checker gets hit but your inside checker doesn’t.
(d) Seeing how your opponent’s doubles play. When plays are close, take a careful look at how your opponent’s doubles play. How many are crushing? How many just improve his position slightly? A big swing in how the doubles play could be a deciding factor. The medium doubles (twos, threes, and fours) are the ones to watch here. Double aces will usually just make a single inner point, while double sixes and fives move a lot of freight but generally won’t hit a lot of blots.
Having said all that, let’s look more closely at our four legal plays.
Play 1: 8/2. If you even considered this play, your game needs some work. If you want to create a fourth blot, then at least start a valuable point (with 13/7) rather than the weak 2-point.
Play 2: 13/7. Better than 8/2, for sure, but still the wrong idea. Backgammon strategy is replete with useful bromides which aren’t infallible but which will point you in the right direction most of the time. “Don’t slot while split” is one of the best of these. When you slot a key point, you’re hoping your opponent misses you, after which you can use your whole roll to cover. If your back checkers are split or you have blots strewn around, he’ll use his misses to hit other checkers, and your chances of covering the slot will be greatly reduced. In this position Black is already flailing, with three blots and no anchor. Another blot won’t help your cause.
Plays 3 and 4: 22/16 and 21/15. These two plays are the real contenders. The good news is that neither exposes a new blot; the bad news is that both step out into a double shot in the outfield. To decide between them we have to go beyond general principles and start looking at specific rolls, counting shots and jokers.
Moving 22/16 has the benefit of connectivity. Because the 21-point and the 16-point are within five pips of each other, Black will have some return shots when hit, as well as the possibility of making the 16-point if White whiffs entirely.
When we start counting shots, however, 21/15 starts to look better. Here’s a quick rundown:
Outfield shots: Playing 22/16 leaves 25 outfield shots (all 4s and 5s plus 31, 32, and 22). Playing 21/15 leaves only 22 (all 3s and 4s plus 21).
Double-hits: Ignoring the double-hits which hit on White’s 2-point, we get 9 double-hits after 22/16 (54, 52, 42, 55, 44, and 22). Playing 21/15 gives just 7 double-hits (54, 53, 43, and 33). In addition, the double-hits are much weaker after 21/15 because White is hitting outside the “zone”, while the double-hits after 22/16 are occurring inside the zone.
Jokers: By jokers I mean crushing doubles. There are two after 22/16 (44 and 22) but only one after 21/15 (33). In addition, the 33 joker after 21/15 is less effective because the 3-point is deeper in White’s board.
Looking at the actual rolls shows that 21/15 is somewhat safer for Black than 22/16, because White has fewer hits and the hits are a little less dangerous. The connectivity after 22/16 matters somewhat, but it’s really more of a tie-breaker in positions where the danger from the two plays is about equivalent. With all Black’s exposed blots, immediate safety is the trump card here.
