Black – Pips 79 (-59)
Black to Play 5-1
With the 5-1, Black has just three reasonable plays. Let’s take a look at them.
Play #1 is simple and safe: 6/1 6/5. Black avoids leaving a shot, but his board gets weaker and he still has two outside points to clear. Unless he rolls a double next turn, he’ll leave a shot somewhere with all his big numbers except 6-3 and 5-3.
Play #2 is 13/8 and 3/2. Black volunteers a double shot, but keeps his board and clears the most difficult point. White has a lot of shots: all fours, all ones, plus 2-2, 3-3, and 6-3, a total of 24. If Black doesn’t get hit, he’s got a reasonable chance of getting his blot on the 13-point home, after which he’s a solid favorite to clear his remaining points. If he does get hit, he’s got some chance of getting in and getting out, since White isn’t positioned to make his 3-point quickly. Clearing the midpoint now is the high-risk, high reward play.
Play #3 is the in-between play: 8/3 8/7. Black leaves only 11 shots, but loses his landing spot and leaves the midpoint checkers a bit stranded. Black takes a small risk to keep his inner board, and gives himself another turn or two of timing (if he’s missed) before he has to make the tough decision regarding his midpoint.
What we have is what’s generally called a “pay now versus pay later” problem. Black can take a chance now to reach a playable position, or wait, see if he rolls a double, and pay later if he has to. Before we try to balance Black’s plays against one another, let’s step back, think about the different features of the position, and see how they affect the play we want to make.
Guidelines for Pay Now/Pay Later Problems
Pay now/pay later problems are rarely easy. A lot of different features of the position affect the decision-making, and balancing them against one another can be very hard. Let’s start by making a list of the features we really care about, and see if they favor one play or the other.
(1) How many shots? A play that pays now and volunteers a shot is better if it doesn’t leave much more than a single direct shot. Here 13/8 3/2 leaves 24 shots. While 8/3 8/7 leaves only 11 now, the ultimate cost of that play is some much higher number, since the midpoint remains to be cleared. Leaving 24 shots is a lot, so this feature favors playing safe.
(2) What about White’s board? The weaker White’s board, the more inclined you are to pay now. This is the feature that beginners tend to overlook. They see getting hit as a disaster in itself, whereas it’s only really bad if White can easily contain the checker. If White’s board has a blot, or a high open point, Black should often volunteer the shot. Here White’s board is pretty good – not perfect, but he has no blots and he’s made the 4, 5, and 6-points. This feature also favors playing safe.
(3) Is White’s position improving or deteriorating? If White’s game is improving, you’d rather pay now, before his structure gets even more dangerous. If his game is likely to deteriorate, you’d rather wait and play safe. Here White has a fine position, but if he has to move, he’ll give up something. Rolls containing an ace are especially hard for him to play. This feature favors playing safe.
(4) Is playing safe constructive or destructive? A safe play which actually improves your position will almost always dominate any play that leaves a blot. Here playing safe is destructive, but that’s the usual case in interesting problems.
(5) Do you have real gammon chances? In any normal pay now/pay later problem, Black will be well ahead in the race. If Black is so far ahead that winning a gammon is a real possibility, then playing safe and destroying the home board will decrease gammon chances simply by wasting pips and allowing White to pick up crossovers. This is a minor point which might serve as a tiebreaker in some unusual positions. It’s not relevant in this position where Black’s gammon chances are in the 12% to 15% range, which is a sort of normal background reading.
The most important features to weigh are (1), (2), and (3), and here they all point toward playing safe. The right play, by a solid margin, is 6/1 6/5.
Having solved the main problem, let’s get a little more experience in pay now/pay later situations by taking a look at a few riffs on the main theme.
Black – Pips 79 (-58)
Black to Play 5-1
Problem A: Black to play 5-1.
We’ve made one tiny change here, changing White’s spare checker from a builder on the 4-point to a blot on the 3-point with no cover numbers nearby. That change, however, is enough to swing the position completely, and paying now with 13/8 3/2 is massively correct. If Black gets hit he now has a 13-number shot at the blot on the 3-point. Combine the inner-board blot with Black’s 5-point board and White’s resulting outfield blots, and suddenly getting hit doesn’t look quite so costly for Black.
Black – Pips 79 (-72)
Black to Play 5-1
Problem B: Black to play 5-1.
Here we’ve taken away the blot but moved White’s open point to the 5-point. Paying now with 13/8 3/2 is now about equivalent to playing safe. Black will have a lot of chances to come in on the 5-point if he’s hit, but White will be careful about leaving blots, so Black won’t pick up quite so many loose gammons.
Black – Pips 79 (-50)
Black to Play 5-1
Problem C: Black to play 5-1.
Here we’ve broken White’s midpoint and given him a couple of builders for the 3-point. This is a more common sort of structure in actual play, and the changes all favor paying now. Playing 13/8 13/12 leaves only 16 shots, compared to 24 in the original problem, and White’s position is now improving, as he’s getting ready to make his 3-point. Breaking the midpoint now dominates playing safe by a wide margin.
Black – Pips 85 (-39)
Black to Play 5-1
Problem D: Black to play 5-1.
Here we’ve made several changes to the original position, many of which favor paying now.
> White has a blot on the 3-point (strongly favors paying now.)
> White gets only 16 shots after 13/8 13/12 (slightly favors paying now.)
> White has a dead checker on the 2-point (slightly favors paying now.)
That’s a lot of reasons to pay now, but there’s one item on the other side of the ledger: Black has a constructive use of his 5-1. (He can make his ace-point.) Being able to make a useful play is so important that 6/1 2/1 is about equivalent to 13/8 13/12.
One last comment before we call it a wrap. Notice that in none of these examples was breaking the 8-point the best play. (It was sometimes the second-best play.) That’s because breaking the 8-point is really a pay now and pay later play. Once you lose the 8-point, you’re likely to have to leave another shot breaking the midpoint, and you’ve only bought yourself perhaps one extra turn to roll a double.
