Note: All ‘cash game’ problems assume the Jacoby Rule is in effect. That is, you can’t win a gammon unless the cube has been turned.

This problem shows Black playing a well-timed holding game while White is struggling to clear his points and get his men home. White leads in the race by just over 60 pips, so it’s always been highly likely that he would have to leave a shot or two unless he rolled a useful set of doubles. Now White has reached his first key decision point. Out of spares, he can still play safe, but he may not want to.

With the 5-1, White has just three reasonable plays. Let’s take a look at them.

Play #1 is simple and safe: 6/1 6/5. White avoids leaving a shot, but his board gets weaker and he still has two outside points to clear. Unless he rolls a double next turn, he’ll leave a shot somewhere with all his big numbers except 6-3 and 5-3.

Play #2 is 13/8 and 3/2. White volunteers a double shot, but keeps his board and clears the most difficult point. Black has a lot of shots: all fours, all ones, plus 2-2, 3-3, and 6-3, a total of 24. If White doesn’t get hit, he’s got a reasonable chance of getting his blot on the 13-point home, after which he’s a solid favorite to clear his remaining points. If he does get hit, he’s got some chance of getting in and getting out, since Black isn’t positioned to make his 3-point quickly. Clearing the midpoint now is the high-risk, high reward play.

Play #3 is the in-between play: 8/3 8/7. White leaves only 11 shots, but loses his landing spot and leaves the midpoint checkers a bit stranded. White takes a small risk to keep his inner board, and gives himself another turn or two of timing (if he’s missed) before he has to make the tough decision regarding his midpoint.

What we have is what’s generally called a “pay now versus pay later” problem. White can take a chance now to reach a playable position, or wait, see if he rolls a double, and pay later if he has to. Before we try to balance White’s plays against one another, let’s step back, think about the different features of the position, and see how they affect the play we want to make.

Guidelines for Pay Now/Pay Later Problems

Pay now/pay later problems are rarely easy. A lot of different features of the position affect the decision-making, and balancing them against one another can be very hard. Let’s start by making a list of the features we really care about, and see if they favor one play or the other.

(1) How many shots? A play that pays now and volunteers a shot is better if it doesn’t leave much more than a single direct shot. Here 13/8 3/2 leaves 24 shots. While 8/3 8/7 leaves only 11 now, the ultimate cost of that play is some much higher number, since the midpoint remains to be cleared. Leaving 24 shots is a lot, so this feature favors playing safe.

(2) What about Black’s board? The weaker Black’s board, the more inclined you are to pay now. This is the feature that beginners tend to overlook. They see getting hit as a disaster in itself, whereas it’s only really bad if Black can easily contain the checker. If Black’s board has a blot, or a high open point, White should often volunteer the shot. Here Black’s board is pretty good – not perfect, but he has no blots and he’s made the 4, 5, and 6-points. This feature also favors playing safe.

(3) Is Black’s position improving or deteriorating? If Black’s game is improving, you’d rather pay now, before his structure gets even more dangerous. If his game is likely to deteriorate, you’d rather wait and play safe. Here Black has a fine position, but if he has to move, he’ll give up something. Rolls containing an ace are especially hard for him to play. This feature favors playing safe.

(4) Is playing safe constructive or destructive? A safe play which actually improves your position will almost always dominate any play that leaves a blot. Here playing safe is destructive, but that’s the usual case in interesting problems.

(5) Do you have real gammon chances? In any normal pay now/pay later problem, White will be well ahead in the race. If White is so far ahead that winning a gammon is a real possibility, then playing safe and destroying the home board will decrease gammon chances simply by wasting pips and allowing Black to pick up crossovers. This is a minor point which might serve as a tiebreaker in some unusual positions. It’s not relevant in this position, where White’s gammon chances are in the 12% to 15% range, which is a sort of normal background reading.

The correct play: The most important features to weigh are (1), (2), and (3), and here they all point toward playing safe. The right play, by a solid margin, is 6/1 6/5.